Craig Grannell quizzes the industry’s finest about the web
design and development trends that will occur over the coming 12 months
and that you need to be mindful of
2012 looks set to be an interesting year. The economic
fallout continues to batter industries worldwide, seemingly with no end
in sight; and many governments are doing their best to censor the
internet, to deny citizens basic rights or prop up ailing media
companies.
For web design and development, 2012 could be similarly turbulent.
We’re in the midst of various skirmishes: mobile greedily gobbling up
market-share from the desktop; native apps threatening aspects of the
open web; paywalls barricading previously openly available information;
the collision of consolidation and fragmentation; and skeuomorphism
within interfaces contrasting starkly with new, innovative methods of
designing and presenting information and content.
Short of owning a working crystal ball, it’s tough to predict exactly
what’s in store, but a number of designers, developers and industry
figures have given it their best shot. Here are their predictions for
the industry over the coming year, and the trends you need to be mindful
of in order to succeed.
1. Progressive enhancement
According to Happy Cog founder
Jeffrey Zeldman, “the rise of mobile and the dominance of
WebKit-powered smartphones over traditional desktop web browsing is
convincing even die-hard skeptics to embrace progressive enhancement,
HTML5, CSS3, and other tenets and aspects of standards-based design”. He
adds that IE now more fully supporting standards should further bolster
this “rush to embrace the shiny new”.
2. Responsive design
Zeldman continues that we’re also experiencing a “standards
nightmare”, but in the hardware space: “There’s a plethora of devices
out there with widely differing abilities – it’s never been more
confusing or challenging to create brilliant interfaces that work across
them all.” Because of this, he expects responsive design to play a big
role in 2012, “bridging the enormous gulfs between platforms”. Clearleft founder Andy Budd
reckons this could be a means for “forward-thinking publishers to usurp
Apple’s paywall on the iPad,” and predicts a gentle trickle of big
responsive sites turning into a flood by year’s end: “It’ll be like the
standards movement all over again.” But Flat Frog Design
user experience strategist Erin Jo Richey thinks it won’t be
plain-sailing: “Just because a site can shrink in size, that doesn’t
mean all the information is equally valuable on desktop and mobile. The
type of information users interact with needs to adjust as fluidly as
the size of the site itself.” She says 2012 will therefore find more
project leads and clients see past screen size and demand an appropriate
strategy dictates the content that appears at various resolutions.
Responsive design, as per the website of Elliot Jay Stocks, will be commonplace by the end of 2012
3. Flash will survive
Much was made of Flash’s supposed demise in 2011, yet designer Tom Muller
forecasts that Adobe’s technology will have something of a resurgence
during 2012: “Many people back the idea of not creating Flash sites,
favouring web standards, and I’m less inclined to use it these days.
However, I nonetheless believe it’s here to stay for a while.” Muller
explains that during 2011 he was involved in three major projects that
relied on Flash, simply because it remains the best tool for interactive
video, animation and 3D online.
“Web designers and developers sometimes lose sight of what works and
is demanded by a larger audience, due to preferring what’s considered
‘cool’ in their bubble,” he adds. “More big brands will shift from
Flash, testing the water with HTML5 and CSS3 for focussed campaigns. But
for entertainment sites, Flash is – and will remain – the predominant
tool of choice to create engaging experiences. And that’s because those
sites act as an extension of a movie’s universe, not only existing to
serve cold information.” In gaming, Dull Dude Games founder Iain Lobb
predicts an even bigger return to Flash: “Clients will try to steer
things towards HTML5, because that’s where the hype is, but I think
often the right thing to do will be steering them back towards Flash.”
Sites like Threaded show there’s still a place for Flash on the web
4. Native support for plug-in features
Even if Flash thrives in 2012, the march towards extra browser-native
features and power will continue, says Opera web evangelist Bruce Lawson:
“As support for the various aspects of ‘HTML5 and friends’ improves and
comes to more browsers and platforms, we’ll see greater pressure for
native browser support of features that we used to use plug-ins for:
camera and microphone access with HTML5 getUserMedia, and other things
further out, such as support for adaptive streaming of multimedia.”
2012 will find more browser-native features that once would have required plug-ins, such as Sean Christmann’s video demos
5. Appification takes hold
Remy Sharp, self-described
‘MasterChef of code and cookies’ maintains 2012 will see browsers get
closer to the platform: “I’m expecting more high-quality,
high-performance games running in the browser, in a way where you can’t
tell if they’re native or not.” He also thinks we’ll see more sites
working directly with files and other aspects of operating systems.
From a visual standpoint, Muller thinks this approach will find
designers taking “major cues from tablet and screen interaction,”
resulting in a “hybrid design that lives between ‘point and click’ and
‘touch and swipe’”. He also reckons 2012 will find skeuomorphic and
heavily textured design lingering, not least due to Apple pushing it so
hard on their devices. But publication designer Roger Black
argues in a world of content, designers and editors will “have to shed
this propensity to take what they know and convert it to something
else”. He recommends: “Don’t think ‘newspaper on the tablet’ or ‘mobile
magazine site’, for example, think ‘digital publication’.”
In terms of technology, social software consultant Suw Charman-Anderson
reckons the convenience of apps is a boon for consumers but a pain for
developers, in “having to create an app for every platform and deal with
various store policies”. Beyond the native-versus-web-app row, she sees
2012 bringing about “widespread adoption of mixed native/HTML5 apps,
where you can feed content to your apps across all platforms from a
central source”. She cites Pugpig.com as
an example: “They’re already merging iOS and Android with HTML5 and
creating great user experiences. It’s only a matter of time before this
tactic takes off as the only real way that smaller content producers can
keep up with the demands of different platforms.”
Apple’s irritating penchant for skeuomorphic design will continue to influence designers, thinks Muller
6. Web app fragmentation
While web apps should find increased success in 2012, Lawson fears
the year will also be one of fragmentation, replacing one group of
proprietary systems (native apps) with another. “The spirit of
co-operation between browser vendors will continue for the HTML5 spec,
but not filter into other web stack specifications,” he says, sadly,
noting that we’ve already seen Chrome-only apps. “A severe case of ‘not
invented here’ can be seen in the 10 – yes, 10! – different app manifest formats
invented by vendors instead of collaborating to make the W3C one
better. This harms developers and, worse, lack of interoperability hurts
consumers.”
Mozilla technical evangelist Rob Hawkes is optimistic that Boot to Gecko,
Mozilla’s ‘operating system for the open web’ could boost the chances
of web apps and “remove the reliance on proprietary single-vendor stacks
for app development”. Initially focussed on mobile, it will implement a
variety of Web APIs to access elements of mobile hardware.
Still in its early stages (the grab shows a UI mock-up idea
from the Wiki), Boot to Gecko could aid in the fight against web-app
fragmentation
7. Mobile gets bigger
Speaking of mobile, a no-brainer trend prediction is the continued
growth of mobile traffic and usage. “Mobile web-based apps will
dominate, and we’ll see the rise of mobile MVC frameworks like the one
37signals is working on,” opines Treehouse founder Ryan Carson.
In terms of market-share, mobile platform strategist Peter-Paul Koch
expects mobile browsing to exceed 10 per cent in 2012. “Clients will
clamour for mobile sites, and web designers and developers must be ready
or risk losing clients,” he warns. Koch holds that making sites ready
for mobile will also cause change for the good: “No more Flash, hover
effects and pixel-perfect rendering in all browsers. Instead: responsive
design, device APIs, and deciding which features are so important that
they must be shown on the mobile site, along with an enhanced awareness
that a website should work on any device.”
Mobile growth will increase the number of mobile-optimised sites in 2012
8. A device explosion
Easy! Designs Principal Aaron Gustafson
thinks growth in mobile will lead to a major challenge: “Designers and
developers will have to embrace the smaller tablet form factors – think
Nook Tablet and Kindle Fire instead of iPad – as cheap tablet devices
flood the market.” Lobb adds that this will lead to more developers
“needing to own multiple devices, in order to check site compatibility”.
Designers will have to embrace smaller tablet form-factors in 2012
9. Respect beyond aesthetics
Designer and illustrator Geri Coady
notes how we often say good design is invisible, yet “rarely take
notice when a website or app shows incredible attention to detail not
only in visual design, but in the choice of language and the behaviour
of interactions”. She thinks that 2012 will find more designers and
clients understanding that appearance alone isn’t everything: “We should
treat style, content, and behaviour with equal respect – they must work
together to strengthen the meaning and personality of a site, app, or
brand.”
Such understanding will come from enhancing skill-sets (Carson
reckons in 2012 that “any web designer who isn’t also a front-end
developer won’t be able to find work”) or through collaboration. “I’d
love to see more developers learning from designers, so we can do a
better job of implementing designs. And vice versa, designers learning
from developers, to understand what’s possible, and why some things are
harder than others,” muses Sharp. The net result, says ‘Typomaniac’ Erik Spiekermann: “More designers will have an affinity with code and more coders will have an affinity with design”.
10. Social battles heat up
The importance of social networking sites will continue to grow
throughout 2012, but opinions differ regarding potential outcomes.
Developer Blaine Cook has an inkling
that “Facebook will continue to wane in importance, and we’ll see more
start-ups like Path, Instagram, Tumblr, and Spotify, where social
interactions are being pushed out to the edges”. But Muller reckons
“more social sharing networks and apps will try to take a piece of the
Twitter and Facebook pie, but will actually end up integrating those
into their service”. He also wonders whether Facebook will “offer tools
to create sites, instead of just pages,” to satisfy people’s desire for
“continued integration with social media, and services that allow you to
share your life online”.
Social will continue to heat up in 2012, and Cook sees more start-ups like Path taking over from giants like Facebook
11. Growth of the two-screen model
“I think the two-screen experience will be big in 2012,” predicts
Budd. With TV companies more aware of competition in the living room,
they’re increasingly keen to push timely, relevant content to this
second screen. “Examples in 2011 included the play-along version of a
Million Pound Drop, and the Nature Watch tablet demo from the BBC,”
continues Budd. “Numerous start-ups have moved into this space,
including Shazam’s new TV-show tagging abilities, so expect much more in
2012.”
More companies will take advantage of the second screen in 2012
37signals CEO Jason Fried has condemned traditional office culture. Expect more companies to have atypical set-ups in 2012
13. Stronger customer service
Headscape co-founder Paul Boag
reckons 2012 will be the year of customer service within the web
industry: “As web designers, we like to think we just build websites. We
don’t. We also offer a service to our clients. We are often so obsessed
with user experience, code and design that we forget other important
factors such as good communication, understanding business needs and
exceeding client expectations. If we are going to prosper in 2012 we
need to blow our clients away, not just their users.”
14. Better value, not lower prices
Budd believes that the web industry is on a “continuous march towards
professionalism” and this means designers and developers need to “up
their game or run the risk of finding themselves in a price ghetto”.
During 2012, he hopes to see a different approach from more designers:
“Stop compromising standards and rushing out poorly planned and poorly
implemented projects. Stop cutting corners and instead put in the effort
required to deliver your clients exceptional value.” Spiekermann adds
that clients will increasingly learn to react strongly to such attitudes
and also “understand that websites are never truly finished, along with
being more accepting of an agile process”.
15. Pushing the boundaries
Ending on a high, Edge of my Seat
founder Rachel Andrew thinks 2012 will be a year in which technological
and skills evolution could be rapid. “Throughout 2011, we saw browser
support for parts of HTML5 and CSS3 improve to the point where we can
really start to use this stuff in our work, and so we’re having to work
out the new best ways to do things,” she says. “I’m finding on every
project I start now I need to check myself, making sure I’m not doing
something because that’s the way it has always been done when we now
have new and better ways to achieve the end result.” Andrew believes
2012 will increasingly find designers pushing the boundaries of new
technology, “experimenting, throwing away what doesn’t work or that
which has been replaced with something better, and working out new best
practices based on what we now have to work with”.
The fight for internet freedoms
Not a design trend so much as an argument for activism. A number of
developers are concerned that lawmakers continue to argue in favour of
curtailing internet freedoms, which in Europe and the USA is typically
at the behest of media giants. Zeldman says that “like anyone with even a
basic understanding of how the internet works, I’m radically opposed to
SOPA,” which he refers to as a “truly terrible piece of legislation
that would be impossible to enforce and would shut down virtually every
site on the web […] and destroy the DNS system”.
Tumblr is one of several major websites that’s been active in opposing SOPA
Koch hopes if any country passes an insane law of this kind,
“services will move or we’ll find creative ways around them,” while
Lawson longs for people to stop using a ‘think of the children’ argument
as an excuse for censoring content: “I’m a parent and don’t want my
kids seeing [unsuitable content], but monitoring their web use is a
parenting problem rather than one of censorship”. Regardless, 2012 will
in part be a battle to stop governments seriously damaging the internet
and therefore the entire industry.
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